Polls and Recent Election Results

The three main 'poll aggregators' put the Conservatives on around one third of the vote. But they differ quite a bit on their predicted shares for Labour, Lib Dem and Green. Two show the Conservatives winning, the other a Labour win. Then there are the recent election results to consider, both local and general, listed further down this page. We will update this page regularly with the latest picture.

It is because of this confusing mass of often conflicting information that people react so positively to the idea of the primary and its aim of uniting us behind one progressive candidate - the People's Champion.

Latest predictions for the Newton Abbot constituency from leading pollsters

Seat predictions are based on multiple factors including previous elections and national polls. They are not particularly reliable. A Primary is a far better way of finding out which candidate local people think is best-placed to defeat the Conservative. It's important to note that people currently expected to vote for Reform may well vote tactically for the Conservatives if they see one progressive party threatening to win. That's why we need a major swing behind a single progressive candidate to be sure of victory here.
We use the following seat prediction websites:
- Electoral Calculus - link
- Election Maps UK - link
- Stonehaven MRP poll - link
- Best for Britain MRP poll - link
We averaged the prediction from the three above which offer predictions for Newton Abbot. On 9th Jan 2024, the average prediction was for the Conservative MP to win again on just 32%. The total of the three progressive parties was 59% - a comfortable win if we're clever and vote together.